Drought Severity and Frequency Analysis Aided by Spectral and Meteorological Indices in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq

In the past two decades, severe drought has been a recurrent problem in Iraq due part to climate change. Additionally, catastrophic drop discharge of Tigris and Euphrates rivers their tributaries aggravated situation Iraq, which was formerly one most water-rich nations Middle East. The Kurdistan Region (KRI) also conditions. This study analyzed Landsat time-series dataset from 1998 2021 determine severity status KRI. Modified Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI2) Normalized Difference Water (NDWI) were used as spectral-based indices evaluate changes vegetative cover, water bodies, precipitation. Standardized Precipitation (SPI) Spatial Coefficient Variation (CV) meteorologically based indices. According this study, area had precipitation deficits droughts 2000, 2008, 2012, 2021. MSAVI2 results indicated that cover decreased by 36.4%, 39.8%, 46.3% respectively. SPI’s KRI experienced 1999, 2009, 2021, while southeastern affected 2008. KRI’s western southern parts considerably drought. Furthermore, Lake Dukan (LD), lost 63.9% its surface remarkable shrinkage among bodies. Analysis geographic distribution CV annual northeastern parts, get much more precipitation, less spatial rainfall variability uniform throughout year than other areas. Moreover, southwest exhibited higher fluctuation variation. There statistically significant positive correlation between MSAVI2, SPI, NDWI, agricultural yield-based vegetation cover. revealed low rates are always associated with declining crop yields LD shrinkage. These findings may be concluded provide policymakers scientific foundation for preservation mitigation.